So we all saw Sony kick Microsoft's teeth in on Monday. Now that I've calmed down, I want to post a more sober assessment of what we've seen. That being the biggest moment of the show worries me.
I love that the PS4 will be more supportive of consumer rights. But what kind of experiences are we getting next gen? So far, these games are just prettier takes on the typical fare we've seen this generation. The biggest games for me were a remake of a fighter that came out 20 years ago (Killer Instinct), and a Final Fantasy game first revealed 7 years ago (FFXV).
Very few games looked to rock the boat much, splashing cold water on developer claims that new hardware would open up new creative vistas. Didn't Bioshock Infinite, the Walking Dead and The Last of Us come out this gen? The games they've showcased only look next-gen from a graphical standpoint, not like some bold new step forward in game design or story content.
Even Nintendo is resting on it's laurels. The main argument for Nintendo's lack of new IP is how they do so many different things with Mario and Zelda and the like. But this E3 Nintendo Direct, which sought to validate a push away from E3 in general, instead showed they didn't have enough to counter the Sony and MS press conferences.
As cool as FINALLY seeing Mega Man in Smash is, the game itself didn't leave much of an impression on me. It looks...like Smash. Meanwhile, the big 3D Mario and Retro announcements ended up being an HD version of 3D Land and yet another DKC platformer. The coolest looking games were X from Monolith Soft and Platinum's work (Wonderful 101 and Bayonetta 2), rather than the all-too-safe looking games from the old Nintendo pantheon. How much better is that than a sea of Call of Duty and Halo sequels exactly?
Then you had Iwata going on about how realistic Donkey Kong's fur looks, or how shaderific the Wind Waker remake's visuals are. Seriously? The same guy who said "specs don't matter" on the Wii is talking about shaders and screen resolution now? Do they really want to get into a spec debate they can't win? Wasn't the WiiU meant to provide a unique experience through the Gamepad, not bleeding edge visuals or tech? Because I sure didn't see enough of the former out of Nintendo on Tuesday.
And even Sony's vaunted announcement, in the end, is just a PR stunt meant to delay the inevitable. They simply took advantage of the fact that MS went all in way too soon.
I was 12 when the PS2 first came out in Japan. Kids born in 2000, who've never known a gaming landscape without digital content or mobile, are older now. If this generation lasts as long as this one, they'll be in college when the PS5 and X-two come out. They aren't going to be anywhere near as attached to physical discs as we were. Plus the global network infrastructure will be much better than it is now, just as it's grown by leaps and bounds since '05.
Will there be enough gamers attached to the old model to prevent them from going all digital next time? I doubt it. Are those people going to be anywhere near as willing to pay $60 per game? Doubt that part too. People like me who almost never buy games at $60 at retail will be a lot more gunshy as well. Nor will F2P be a panacea when 90% of users never pay a dime.
The industry is severely underestimating how much value people put on these games, and how much they'll be willing to pay when their options are more limited. After all, the main reason Steam works so well is the flea market sales they have on a regular basis--a result of PC gaming not being a huge chunk of these company's sales. If such services become their bread and butter on console, and they need to sell those games closer to full price, would people be willing to pay up? And would the industry be willing to take a hit on pricing to keep the model afloat--which would negate the purpose of going all digital in the first place?
I went into E3 worried about the future of gaming in general. All it managed to do was keep me from worrying too much in the short term. But the long-term problems it's facing haven't gone away, and I'm not any more confident now that the industry is ready to deal with it.
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