PixlBit

Back in August, I made a bunch of random Metacritic score predictions for upcoming games. Now that most of them are out, I say it's high time to check back and see how I did.

Killzone Mercenary:
Prediction: Mid/High 80s
Actual Result: 78

...well, I was right about it being the definitive handheld shooter experience, but it turns out that wasn't worth as much as I'd expected. This one ran the gamut, with a very even range of scores between the 90s and the 60s, with an equally diverse set of opinions on both the single-player campaign and the multiplayer.

Tearaway
Prediction: High 80s/Low 90s
Actual Result: 87

Right on target for this one, though. Can't wait to pick this up soon. :)

Killzone Shadowfall:
Prediction: Mid/High 80s
Actual Result: 73

A constant refrain here is that, for the absolutely gorgeous visuals, the gameplay itself isn't anywhere near as ambitious or inspired. Only the graphics were praised as being a big step forward into next-gen territory. 

Knack
Prediction: High 60s/Low 70s
Actual Result: 57

Ouch. I expected this to get the shittiest reviews of all three next-gen consoles this year, and critics ended up dropping the hammer on Cerny's work for the reasons I expected (oversimplified gameplay, lazy phoned in visuals and story). But they ended up being much, much harsher than I expected. Ironic, really, as I actually enjoyed the game more than I thought I would when I tried the demo at the mall. Still wouldn't buy it at full price regardless though--Shu was right to call it a "secondary purchase."

That this was held up as a successor to Spyro--one of my favorite games growing up--really rubbed me the wrong way. I'm glad that Knack was punished for falling short of the bar Cerny himself set for it. 

Dead Rising 3:
Prediction: Low/Mid 70s
Actual Result: 78

Technical glitches and rather lackluster visuals that belie it's current-gen origins drag down the scores for a game that, at it's core, delivers the simple visceral zombie-killing pleasures the franchise is known for. That core, however, has become long in the tooth for some critics. Even so, it actually did a bit better than I thought, LOL.

Forza 5
Prediction: Mid/High 80s
Actual Result: 83

Slightly below my expectations. Critics loved the core gameplay and feel the Drivatar implementation was good, but the paucity of content compared to previous games ended up being a drag, however slight. The shift towards mobile-style forced grinding to promote microtransactions was also cited as a negative in some reviews.

Ryse
Prediction: Low/Mid 70s
Actual Result: 61

So I was right about this and Knack being at the bottom of the high profile releases (the ones that weren't delayed anyway), and that this would do slightly better than Knack. I severely underestimated just how badly reviewers would punish it though. "Style over substance" is the impression I got from the game footage, and what it lost points for, but it ended up being even worse than I thought.

Killer Instinct (2013)
Prediction: High 70s/Low 80s
Actual Result: 73

The lack of content at launch ended up hurting this more than I expected, especially considering how often the combat itself was praised and the cheap cost of entry. But considering how Skullgirls gives you more content for $5 less than KI's full Season 1 package, I guess it shouldn't have surprised me.

Super Mario 3D World

Prediction: Mid/High 80s
Actual Result: 93

Like many people on the internet, I was rather underwhelmed by the initial rollout for 3D World. Nintendo did little in the early goings to present it as more than a multiplayer-enabled upgrade to 3D Land with cat suits. As we saw and learned more about the game, though, it ended up looking better and better as time went on. As such, I'm not surprised that it ended up scoring higher than I expected, and I'm actually glad to be way off on this one. The game looks amazing now.

Wind Waker HD
Prediction: High 80s/Low 90s
Actual Result: 90

On target again, finally. :p

Wonderful 101
Prediction: Mid/High 70s
Actual Result: 78

Yes! 3 for...uh...on second thought, never mind. 

Sonic: Lost World
Prediction: Mid/High 80s
Result: 62

Ergh...so much for this turning around critics' opinions or being a return to form.

As great as the game looked in press footage and trailers, and how much praise it got in preview builds, reviewers found the actual game to be badly marred by convoluted controls, inconsistent difficulty and aimless level design. There was the potential for a good game here, but the execution was totally fucked. I was off by more than 20 points. XD

Assassin's Creed IV
Prediction: Low/Mid 80s
Actual Result: Mid 80s across all platforms

4-for-please-don't-keep-count.

COD: Ghosts
Prediction: Low/Mid 80s
Actual Result: Mid 70s across all platforms

Well, damn. I wasn't expecting this. COD has long been a point of contention between gamers who accuse Activision of phoning it in and reviewers saying the core gameplay holds up well enough to justify the yearly iterations. This go-round, however, it seems that they just weren't feeling it, with several saying that the series is playing it too safe now. 

Battlefield 4
Prediction: High 80s/Low 90s
Actual Result: Mid 80s across all platforms

This ended up being just slightly below expectations, although the gap between BFs and COD is FAR bigger than I expected. BF4 had it's own problems, whether it was a dull campaign, technical problems (in multiplayer especially), or multiplayer modes and maps that vary wildly in quality. Critics absolutely LOVED the game when things went right, but it didn't happen consistently enough.

GTA5
Prediction: Mid/High 90s
Actual Result: 97 across both platforms

Come on. What else did people expect?

Saint's Row IV
Prediction: Mid/High 70s
Actual Result: Low 80s across all platforms

Slightly better than expected. The humor turned out to be more hit than miss with critics, along with the superpower-infused gameplay and the sense of power that came with it. Also, there was a notable sharp drop in score between the PC and 360 version, and an even bigger drop between the 360 and PS3.

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All in all, this was a fun little experiment. I had no first hand evidence to judge most of these games--Knack and Sonic: Lost World are the only demos I actually played. I'll be doing predictions for the first half of 2014 soon.