Foo Baw! Run Da Baw! Catch Da Baw! Thro Da Baw!

On 10/20/2014 at 12:23 AM by Super Step

So I've been watching football games that mostly seem pretty well-fought and result in close scores, while Matt Snee commented to me this NFL season has too many blowouts. So, since I'm in a stats course and it's made me crazy enough to do this, I decided to calculate a bunch of crap based on 2014 Regular Season NFL scores and see if there are more blowouts or close games overall this season.

The numbers you see are based on the "spread" of the games played during the week. This is the difference in score between the winner and loser of each game. For instance, the tie between the Panthers and the Bengals Week 6 yielded a spread of 0 because there was no difference in how many points the teams scored. On the other end of the spectrum, the Falcons beating the Buccaneers Week 3 56-14 yielded a spread of 42, etc.

Numbers have been rounded to nearest whole number.

Week 1

Range: 1-28 Mean: 11 Median: 12 Mode: 3

Week 2

Range: 2-31 Mean: 13 Median: 14 Mode: 2, 8, 16

Week 3

Range: 2-42 Mean: 14 Median: 12 Mode: 3, 12

Week 4

Range: 3-31 Mean: 18 Median: 16 Mode: 21, 24

Week 5

Range: 1-32 Mean: 12 Median: 8 Mode: 3, 6, 7, 10

Week 6

Range: 0-31 Mean: 12 Median: 10 Mode: 14

Week 7 (excluding Texans @ Steelers)

Range: 1-27 Mean: 10 Median: 12 Mode: 2

Range of Spreads in the NFL 2014 Regular Season

0-42

Average Spread in the NFL 2014 Regular Season

Median Score of Median Scores

Mode of Modes

So, on average, are there more blowouts or close games? It depends how you define blowout. I'd say a blowout is a game won by 14 or more points, meaning on average most football games are closer to being blowouts than they are to being close games this season.

But I'd say a "very close" game is one kept within 3 points and that's actually the most frequently occurring spread this season.

This week has actually been the best for people wanting close games according to these stats, despite the games I watched today having spreads in the double digits (Cowboys by 10, Packers by 21).

Yeah, I realize this post has nothing to do with anything, but Snee's comment got me interested and this all gave me something to do while I rested after my hill sprints.

There's probably somewhere on nfl.com or espn.com that does what I just did, but I couldn't find it. Oh well.

Matt Snee Staff Writer

10/20/2014 at 01:16 AM

ha ha, you figured this out? i would never have the patience.

Super Step Contributing Writer

10/20/2014 at 01:18 PM

What would you define as a blowout game by the way?

10/20/2014 at 01:26 PM

i dunno, maybe twenty, thirty points...?

10/20/2014 at 08:52 PM

Well by that metric there have definitely been some insane blowouts, but the average game is much closer.

But also by that metric (I went with 20 as the cutoff blowout score) about a quarter of the games played so far (26/150=.247 etc.) have been blowouts, so ... once again, I guess we're both kind of right depending on how you look at the parameters (they're actually not technically statistics, since I have the exact population of scores at my disposal). lol

10/20/2014 at 09:35 PM

Metric? Thats a band right?

Ranger1

10/20/2014 at 10:42 AM

Ugh. Too many numbers for a Monday morning. Head hurts.

10/20/2014 at 01:20 PM

Basically, there have been a lot of close games as well as blowouts this seasons, but the really big blowouts have meant the average game this season is won by about 13 points.

goaztecs

10/22/2014 at 10:50 AM

Ok so when can we Pixlbit folks take you to Vegas to use your calculations on future games?

I wonder how this season holds up against previous seasons, and the spread average at 13 seems a little high.

10/22/2014 at 12:01 PM

Yeah, I'd like to know how the spreads compare to other seasons as well, but I have to get to my actual stats work first. lol

NSonic79

10/27/2014 at 04:16 PM

And why do you not play fantasy football? You seem to have the stat cacluation down. YOu'd rock at it me thinks.

10/27/2014 at 07:02 PM

I actually have been thinking about it this year. Reason I've never done it before is I haven't been as into watching football or sports in general up til now. Only worry I'd have is stats aren't everything. Yes, past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, but it's not a perfect one. People's mentalities and performance can change unexpectedly and mess up my fantasy game. Still, if it's not too late, I'll look into it. I'm a bit of a homer though, so it'll be hard not to pick Dallas players even if they're not best for me. lol

PixlBit